After co-writing a paper (and corresponding system models) in Bill Harris’ system dynamics class last year while I attended the Information School at the University of Washington it got accepted to the International System Dynamics Society Conference and will be presented in the next hour or two by Trond (good luck!).

As it appears in the schedule:

“Exploring the Dynamics of Music Piracy, by Trond Nilsen, Brian Houle, Douglas Kuzenski, Arpan Sheth Abstract Paper Supporting“

In our project, we proposed that music labels simple math impact analysis of pirated music (i.e., that every downloaded album amounted to that album’s value in lost revenue) might work out to the highest legal settlements, but don’t reflect reality.  We attempted to model the impacts of free distribution of music from several perspectives to show the ramifications can be a positive for fans, musicians, and labels alike, when properly leveraged.

This has been a popular theory in some circles for some time, and I would like to believe that, as we discussed in our project, the people who stand to gain the most are the small up-and-coming artists.  It has now become possible for a new “garage” band to distribute free copies of some of their music online and, given that their music is of a good enough quality, find their audience.  Though they probably won’t become mega-stars, it’s increasingly possible for an artist to make a living selling to their established fans and touring in smaller venues.  This isn’t a new strategy by any means, but with the tools and technology available today, its become much more likely to suceed, largely due to piracy.